Forecasting Art Coverage in Gabon Using the Artificial Neural Network Model

Abstract

In this paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze annual ART coverage in Gabon. The employed data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting ART coverage in Gabon. The ANN (9,12,1) model predictions suggest that ART coverage will be around 70% throughout the period 2019-2023. The government is strongly encouraged to intensify demand creation for HIV testing and ART services, strengthen the system of tracking loss to follow up ART clients and allocating more resources for TB/HIV collaboration. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 pp. 150-155

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503026

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