Forecasting Confirmed Covid-19 Cases in Malawi Using Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily
new corona virus infections in Malawi. The employed data covers the period 1
January 2020 to 31 December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the
period 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model indicate
that the model is stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in Malawi. The
results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases are likely to be in the
range 0-270 cases over the out of sample period. Therefore the health
authorities are encouraged to continue enforcing the adherence to WHO
guidelines and protocols in order to prevent and control COVID-19 including
vaccination of the majority of citizens to achieve herd immunity.
Country : Zimbabwe
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