International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Daily Covid-19 Deaths in Italy Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 deaths in Italy. The employed daily data covers the period to 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period to 1January 2021 to 31 May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in Italy. The applied ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections indicate thatCOVID-19 mortality in the country will generally range between 200 and 700 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. Therefore the Italian government is encouraged to continue applying WHO guidelines on prevention and control of COVID-19 including vaccination in order to achieve herd immunity. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI3 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Centre, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Researcher, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 pp. 347-353

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503059

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