Forecasting Daily Covid-19 Deaths in Spain Using Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily
COVID-19 deaths in Spain. The employed daily data covers the period to 1
January 2020 to 31 December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the
period to 1January 2021 to 31 May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is
stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in Spain. The applied ANN (12, 12,
1) model projections indicate that Spain may record no COVID-19 deaths starting
from 13 January 2021 till the end of the out-of-sample period. Therefore the
government is encouraged to continue applying WHO guidelines on prevention and
control of COVID-19 including mass vaccination in order to achieve herd
immunity.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI3 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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