Modeling and Forecasting Annual TB Incidence in Mozambique: A Stern Warning from Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
Mozambique is a high TB burden country which is suffering from civil war
and natural disasters (mainly floods). It is struggling to control the TB
epidemic as it has seen the rise in TB incidence over the period 2000-2018.In
this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TB incidence in
Mozambique. The employed annual data covers the period 2000-2018 and the
out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2023. The residuals and
forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate
that the model is stable in forecasting TB incidence in the Republic of
Mozambique. The results of the study indicate that TB incidence will remain
very high over the period 2019-2023. The government and its HIV/TB funding
partners should allocate more financial resources towards HIV/TB prevention and
control programs. The health ministry in Mozambique should intensify TB
surveillance and control programs among other robust measures in order to
significantly reduce TB incidence in the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Apriani L., McAllister S., Sharples
K., Alisjahbana B., Ruslami R & Hill PC (2019) Latent tuberculosis
infection in health care workers in low- and middle-income countries: an
updated systematic review. Eur Respir J; in press: https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.01789-2018.
Belo C & Naidoo S (2015).
Prevalence and risk factors for latent tuberculosis infection among healthcare
workers in Nampula central hospital, Mozambique. BMC Infect Dis. 2017;17. 8.
Adams S, Ehrlich R, Baatjies R, van Zyl-Smit RN, Said-Hartley Q, Dawson R, et
al. Incidence of occupational latent tuberculosis infection in south African
healthcare workers. Eur Respir J; 45:1364–73.
Brouwer M., Coelho E., das Dores
Mosse C & van Leth F (2015). Implementation of tuberculosis infection
prevention and control in Mozambican health care facilities. Int J Tuberc Lung
Dis. 2015; 19:44–9.
Joshi R., Reingold AL., Menzies D
&Pai M (2006). Tuberculosis among health-care workers in low-and
middle-income countries: a systematic review. PLoS Med;3: e494.
Lívia Maria Pala Anselmo., Emilyn
Costa Conceição., Evangelina Namburete
Cinara Feliciano., Silvana Spindola., Christophe Sola & Valdes
Roberto Bollela (2019) Mycobacterium tuberculosis spoligotypes and
drug-resistant characterization from Beira compared to genotypes circulating in
MozambiqueRevista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical Journal of the
Brazilian Society of Tropical Medicine Vol.:52: e20190257: 2019 doi:
10.1590/0037-8682-0257-2019
Ministério da Saúde (MISAU) (2010).
Moçambique Política e Plano Nacional de Controlo da Infecção para a Tuberculose
em Unidades Sanitárias e ambient conglomerados de Moçambique. http://www.who.int/hiv/
pub/guidelines/mozambique.
Saifodine A., Fyfe J., Sievers A.,
Coelho E., Azam K & Black J (2014). Genetic diversity of Mycobacterium
tuberculosis isolates obtained from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in
Beira city, Mozambique. Int J Mycobacterial;3(2):94-100. doi: 10.1016/j.
ijmyco.2014.03.004.
Sharma D., Sharma J., Deo N &
Bisht D. Prevalence and risk factors of tuberculosis in developing countries
through health care workers. Microb Pathog. 2018; 124:279–83.
WHO (2017). Global tuberculosis
report 2017. Geneva: WHO Press; Report No.: ISBN 978-92-4-156551-6
World Health Organization (WHO)
(2018). Global tuberculosis report 2018.
Technical Report. Geneva: 265 p.
