International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Fatalities in South Africa using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

Abstract

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in South Africa. The employed data covers the period January – December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that that COVID-19 mortality in South Africa will basically range between 100 and 300 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of South Africa to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Mr. Takudzwa. C. Maradze2 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI3 Mr. Thabani NYONI

  1. Independent Researcher, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 3, March 2021 pp. 453-459

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.503078

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