Prediction of Art Coverage in Lesotho Using Artificial Neural Networks
Abstract
In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze ART
coverage in Lesotho. The employed annual data covers the period 2000-2018 and
the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2023. The residuals and
forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate
that the model is stable in forecasting ART coverage in Lesotho. The ANN
(9,12,1) model predicted that the ART coverage will likely be around 63 %
throughout the period 2019-2023.Therefore the government is encouraged to
strengthen the system of tracking loss to follow up ART patients ,create more
demand for ART services and increase HIV testing capacity at all levels of the
health delivery system.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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