Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Barbados

Abstract

The crisis of COVID-19 is growing and has devastating implications for many countries around the world. In this research article, the ANN technique was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases based on new cases of COVID-19 in Barbados for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the employed model suggest that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Barbados. The results of the study imply that that daily COVID-19 cases in Barbados are likely to remain relatively low over the out-of-sample period. The government should continue to implement strong control and preventive measures in order to save lives despite the projected relatively low COVID-19 case volumes.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 657-662

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506115

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