When it comes to public health nowadays,
COVID-19 is of serious concern and considered as the supreme crisis of the
present era. A surge in the number of patients testing positive
for COVID-19 has created a lot of stress and frustration on governing bodies
worldwide and they are finding it difficult to tackle the situation. In this
research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 case volumes
in Bulgaria. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Bulgaria for
the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers
the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model reveal that the model is
stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Bulgaria. It is projected that daily
COVID-19 cases in Bulgaria are likely to decline to zero cases per day around
mid-June 2021. The government of Bulgaria should continue to ensure that there
is compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social
distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on. There is also
need to embrace the vaccination programme in the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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