COVID-19 continues to significantly threaten
human lives and economies around the globe. In this study, the ANN approach was
applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan. This study is based on monthly
new cases of COVID-19 in Uzbekistan for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March
2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July
2021. The residuals and forecast
evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model reveal that the
model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan. It is projected
that daily COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan are likely to decline significantly
over the out-of-sample period. The government should ensure the continued
compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social
distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, as well as
vaccinations, in consistency with WHO guidelines on COVID-19 mitigation
strategies.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
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