Forecasting Covid-19 Related Deaths in Poland

Abstract

It is a public secret that COVID-19 is of serious concern worldwide and considered as the supreme crisis of the present era. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Poland. This study is based on daily COVID-19 deaths in Poland for the period 1 January 2020 – 20 April 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 21 April – 31 August 2021.The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model show that the model is stable. It is projected that daily COVID-19 deaths in Poland are likely to continue to decline over the out-of-sample period. The government should, however, continue to ensure that there is compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on. There is also need to embrace the vaccination programme in the country.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Mr. Thabani NYONI3 Mr. Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
  3. Independent Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 6, June 2021 pp. 878-883

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.506153

References

  1. Alazab, M., et al. (2020). COVID-19 Prediction and Detection Using Deep Learning, International Journal of Computer Information Systems and Industrial Management Applications, 12: 168 – 181.
  2. Butt, C., et al. (2020). Deep Learning System to Screen Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pneumonia, Applied Intelligence, pp: 1 – 7.
  3. Chen, N., et al. (2020). Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of 99 Cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in Wuhan, China: A Descriptive Study, Lancet, 395: 507 – 513.
  4. Dean, N. E., et al. (2020). Ensemble Forecast Modelling for the Design of COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trials, Vaccine, 38 (46): 7213 – 7216.
  5. McCloskey, B., et al. (2020). Mass Gathering Events and Reducing Further Spread of COVID-19: A Political and Public Health Dilemma, Lancet, 395: 1096 – 1099.
  6. Medina-Mendieta, J. F., et al. (2020). COVID-19 Forecasts for Cuba Using Logistic Regression and Gompertz Curves, MEDICC, 22 (3): 32 – 39.
  7. Remuzzi, A., & Remuzzi, G. (2020). COVID-19 and Italy: What Next? Lancet, pp: 1 – 13.
  8. Orzechowska, M., & Bednarek, A. K. (2020). Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic in Poland ccording to Government Regulations and People Behavior, Frontiers, pp: 1 – 12.
  9. WHO (2020). Laboratory Testing for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Suspected Human Cases: Interim Guidance, WHO, Geneva.