Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Sri Lanka Using a Machine Learning Algorithm
Abstract
In this research paper, the ANN approach was
applied to analyze TFR in Sri Lanka. The employed annual data covers the period
1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied
model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Sri Lanka. The
results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Sri Lanka are likely to remain around
2.3 births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the
authorities in Sri Lanka are encouraged to continue improving accessibility of family planning services to
adolescents and young adults to minimize adverse SRH outcomes.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 323-326
Worldometer (2020). Sri Lanka demographics. https://www.worldometers.info
Tashya
de Silva (2008). Low Fertility Trends: Causes, Consequences and Policy Options, IHP
Working Paper Series Number 1, pp 1-27.
Gubhaju B (2006). “Fertility Transition in Asia: An
Overview of Levels and Trends”, paper presented at the Seminar on the Fertility
Transition in Asia: Opportunities and Challenges, UNESCAP, Bangkok, Thailand.
18-20, December.
De Silva, W. I. (2001). A Population Projection of Sri
Lanka: For the New Millennium, 2001-2101: Trends and Implications, Institute
for Health Policy, Colombo
