Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Ecuador Using a Machine Learning Algorithm
Abstract
In this research paper, the ANN approach was
applied to analyze TFR in Ecuador. The employed annual data covers the period
1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied
model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Ecuador. The
results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Ecuador are likely to remain around 3
births per woman over the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the authorities in Ecuador are
encouraged to
continue improving accessibility of family planning services to adolescents and
young adults to minimize adverse SRH outcomes.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 191-194
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