International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Ethiopia

Abstract

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Ethiopia. The employed annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Ethiopia. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Ethiopia are likely to remain around 4.3 births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the Ethiopian government is encouraged to (1) focus on creating more demand for family planning services and tackle system challenges which hinder access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services (2) promote women empowerment through funding women empowerment programs.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
  3. SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 163-166

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2021.508032

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References

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  3. World Health Organization (2008). Unsafe Abortion. Global and Regional Estimates of the Incidence of Abortion and Associated Mortality.
  4. Negash W et al (2016). Reproductive health service utilization and associated factors: the case of north Shewa zone youth, Amhara region Ethiopia. Pan Afr Med J, 25(Supp 2):3
  5. WHO, G T Z., & GmbH (2005). Sexually Transmitted Infections among Adolescents: the need for adequate health services. Geneva: 2005.
  6.  Malleshappa K., Shivaram K., & Nandini C (2011). Knowledge and attitude about reproductive health among rural adolescent girls in kuppam mandal an intervention study. Biomed Res, 22(3):305–10.

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