Projection of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In the United States of America Using a Machine Learning Approach
Abstract
The United states is
among the first world countries which are currently reporting fertility rates
below replacement level and this has serious negative consequences in the near
future with regards to the availability of youthful labor force, increase in
health expenditure and social security costs. In this study, the ANN approach
was applied to analyze TFR in the USA. The employed annual data covers the
period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030.
The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the
applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in the USA.
The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in the USA are likely to be around 1.9
births per woman throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, the US
government is encouraged to
promote child bearing especially among women in the 18-30 years age group by
providing pro-fertility incentives and reducing the cost of raising children.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 347-350
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