Time Series Forecasting Of Total Fertility Rate in Zimbabwe
Abstract
Zimbabwe’s family
planning program is considered as one of the success stories in Sub-Saharan
Africa. In this research paper, the ANN approach was proposed to analyze total
fertility rate (TFR) in Zimbabwe. The employed annual data covers the period
1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2030. The
residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied
model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TFR in Zimbabwe. The
results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Zimbabwe are likely to remain around 4.0 births per woman over the out-of-sample
period. Therefore, we
encourage the Zimbabwean government to focus on creating more demand for family planning services, address
adolescent and youths’ challenges faced when seeking sexual and reproductive
health (SRH) services and channel more resources towards women empowerment
program activities.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 5, Issue 8, August 2021 pp. 478-481
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Khitam Abu Hamad (2020) Determinants of Fertility and
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ZNFPCIP 2016-2020. Zimbabwe National Family Planning Costed
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