Univariate Time Series Analysis of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) In Mauritius
Abstract
In this research
paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TFR in Mauritius. The employed
annual data covers the period 1960-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges
over the period 2019-2030. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
(Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in
forecasting TFR in Mauritius. The results of the study indicate that annual total fertility rates in Mauritius will
remain below replacement level and generally likely to decline over the
out-of-sample period. Therefore, authorities in Mauritius are
encouraged to promote
child bearing by providing pro-fertility incentives and lowering the cost of
raising children.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Tatenda. A. CHIHOHO3 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Health Economist, Zimbabwe
SAGIT Innovation Center, Harare, Zimbabwe
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