International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Detection of Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Guinea Bissau Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This research paper uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Guinea Bissau from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline but still remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we implore authorities in Guinea Bissau to prioritize girl child education, allocate more resources to youth empowerment projects, scale up awareness campaigns among communities and enforce laws that protect the rights of women and girls.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 296-300

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.612056

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