Early Detection of Abnormal Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Burkina Faso Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique
Abstract
This research article uses annual time series
data of adolescent fertility rate for Burkina Faso from 1960 to 2020 to predict
future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The
study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
decline but remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we
encourage authorities in Burkina Faso to adopt an aggressive approach when
addressing the problem of adolescent pregnancies which includes scaling up
educational campaigns, creating adolescent friendly clinics, strictly enforce
laws that prevent child marriages and solving all socio cultural, demographic
and economic issues that lead to unwanted pregnancies among adolescents.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 12, December 2022 pp. 142-147
Burkina
Faso AFP (2016). High-level Leaders Commit to Integrating Sexual and
Reproductive Health Education in Burkina Faso November 2016 CASE STUDY, pp 1-4
Burkina
Faso Institut national de la statistique et de la démographie (National
Institute of Statistics and Demography), The Bill & Melinda Gates Institute
for Population and Reproductive Health at The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Public Health, Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 (PMA2020) Survey
round 3, PMA2016/Burkina FasoR3. 2016. Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso and Baltimore,
Maryland, USA
