Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Belgium from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation statistics
indicate that the applied Holt’s linear model is stable in forecasting under
five mortality rate in Belgium. The optimal values for the smoothing constants
α and β are 0.9 and 0.1respectively based on minimum MSE. The Holt’s linear
exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will continue
to drop over the out of sample period. Therefore we implore health authorities
in Belgium to design child health policies that are meant to keep under five
mortality under control.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 116-120