Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1990 to 2020 to predict
future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast
evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential
smoothing model is stable in forecasting U5MR.Optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. Forecast
results revealed that annual U5MR will continue to decline over the out of
sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Sub-Saharan Africa to
allocate more resources to maternal and child health programs to ensure
availability of medical supplies and healthcare professionals at all levels of
healthcare. There is need to identify and address factors that significantly
contribute to mortality among under five children.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 487-491