Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Benin from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria
indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model is stable
in forecasting under five mortality rate. The optimal values for the smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and o.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The Holt’s
linear exponential smoothing model projections indicate that annual U5MR will
continue to drop but still remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore
health authorities in Benin should channel more resources to the maternal and
child health program in order to address most of the challenges that contribute
to the high absolute numbers of under five deaths in the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 121-125