Assessing the Feasibility of Achieving Substantial Reduction of Under Five Mortality in Cameroon Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Cameroon from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear method is stable for forecasting under five mortality in Cameroon. Optimal values of smoothing parameters α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will decline but remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Cameroon to channel more resources to child health programs in order to substantially reduce under five mortality to the desired level by 2030.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 158-162

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607032

References

  1. UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF
  2. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  3. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  4. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  5. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  6. United Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development 2016.