Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Zimbabwe from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria indicate that the applied Holt’s linear(double exponential smoothing)
model is stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.6 respectively based on minimum MSE.
The exponential smoothing model projections revealed that annual U5MR will
decline but still remain high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we
encourage the Zimbabwean government to allocate more resources to the maternal
and child health (MNCH) program to ensure availability of medical supplies and
staff at all levels of healthcare and address all the major challenges that
significantly contribute to under five mortality.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 563-567