Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for El Salvador from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. Holt’s
linear exponential smoothing model was applied to forecast U5MR in this study.
The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.2respectively
based on minimum MSE. The findings of this study revealed that annual U5MR will
continue to decline over the out of sample period. Hence, we encourage the
government of El Salvador to address various challenges encountered by
pediatric patients at all levels of healthcare.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 227-231