Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study
uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Libya from
1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030.
Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is
stable in forecasting under five mortality rate. Holt’s linear method was
applied to forecast U5MR in Libya. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and
β are 0.9and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study
indicated that annual U5MR will decline throughout the out of sample period.
Therefore, we encourage the Libyan authorities to continue supporting the
maternal and child health program to ensure availability of medical supplies
and medical staff at every healthcare facility across the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 335-339