Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data on under five
mortality rate (U5MR) for Fiji Islands from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of U5MR over the out of sample period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and
forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in
forecasting U5MR in Fiji Islands. The Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model
was applied in this study to forecast future trends of U5MR. The optimal values
for the smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on
minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections suggest that
U5MR will increase over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage
health authorities in Fiji to urgently respond to the likely future increase in
under five mortality by allocating more resources to the maternal and child
health (MNCH) program in order to reverse the projected undesirable future
trends of U5MR. The government should quickly identify and address factors that
significantly contribute to mortality among under five children.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 241-245