Tracking Fiji’s Future Progress towards Achieving Substantial Reduction of under Five Mortality By 2030 Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Fiji Islands from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the out of sample period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR in Fiji Islands. The Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model was applied in this study to forecast future trends of U5MR. The optimal values for the smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The double exponential smoothing model projections suggest that U5MR will increase over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage health authorities in Fiji to urgently respond to the likely future increase in under five mortality by allocating more resources to the maternal and child health (MNCH) program in order to reverse the projected undesirable future trends of U5MR. The government should quickly identify and address factors that significantly contribute to mortality among under five children. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 241-245

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607050

References

  1. UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  3. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  4. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  5. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  6. United Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development 2016.
  7. Mulye TP., Park M J., Nelson C D., Adams SH., Irwin C E., & Brindis CD (2009). Trends in Adolescent and Young Adult Health in the United States. J Adolesc Health, 45:8–24.
  8. World Health Organization (2008). Unsafe Abortion. Global and Regional Estimates of the Incidence of Abortion and Associated Mortality. 
  9. Negash W et al (2016). Reproductive health service utilization and associated factors: the case of north Shewa zone youth, Amhara region Ethiopia. Pan Afr Med J, 25(Supp 2):3.