Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate for Iraq Using a Machine Learning Algorithm

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on under five mortality rate (U5MR) for Iraq from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation criteria indicate that the applied model is stable in forecasting U5MR. The ANN (12, 12, 1) model projections indicate that U5MR will remain around 25 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Iraq to address all the factors that influence under five mortality in the country including improvement of working conditions for healthcare workers and ensuring availability of adequate medical supplies at all levels of healthcare.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 2022 pp. 296-299

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.607062

References

  1. UNICEF. (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  3. World Bank (2019). Mortality rate, under 5.
  4. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  5. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  6. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  7. Yaya S, Bishwajit G, Okonofua F, Uthman OA (2018) Under five mortality patterns and associated maternal risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa: A multi-country analysis. PLoS ONE 13(10): e0205977.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0205977
  8. Liu L, Oza S, Hogan D et al., Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000–15: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals. Lancet 2016; 388: 3027–35 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31593-8 PMID: 27839855
  9. United Nation. Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development 2016.