Tracking Future Trends of Under Five Mortality Rate in Bahrain Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate (U5MR) for Bahrain from 1960 to 2020to predict future
trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and model evaluation
statistics indicate that the applied Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model
is stable in forecasting U5MR. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β
are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on
minimum MSE. The Holt’s linear model projections suggest that annual U5MR will
continue to drop throughout the out of sample period. Hence, health authorities
should relentlessly provide funding to the maternal and child health program in order to maintain this desirable trend of under-five
mortality.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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