Tracking the Future Path of Under Five Mortality Rate for Canada Using Double Exponential Smoothing Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on under
five mortality rate (U5MR) for Canada from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of U5MR over the period 2021 to 2030. Residuals and forecast evaluation
criteria indicate that Holt’s linear model is stable in forecasting U5MR in
Canada. The optimal smoothing parameters α and β are 0.9and 0.1 respectively
based on minimum MSE. The findings of the study showed that annual U5MR will
continue to decline over the out of sample period. Therefore we implore health
authorities in Canada to design strategies that will help keep under five
mortality below 25 deaths per 1000 live births.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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