Adolescent Fertility Forecasting for Namibia Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Namibia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Namibia to scale educational campaigns among communities, continuously promote girl child education and protect sexual and reproductive rights of women and girls. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 247-251

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702040

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