Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study employs annual time series data of adolescent
fertility rate for Thailand from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage
authorities in Thailand to promote girl child education, finance empowerment
programs for youths and address local factors that significantly contribute to
adolescent pregnancies.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 432-437