International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Holt’s Linear Method Use in Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Jordan

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Jordan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will hover around 25 births per 1000 women aged 15-19years throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage policy makers in Jordan to establish more adolescent friendly clinics that are well resourced to attend to the various adolescent health problems and address all the existing problems which contribute to teenage pregnancies.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 141-146

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702022

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