Predicting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Lebanon Using Holt’s Linear Method
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for Lebanon from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study
utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.6 respectively based on minimum MSE.
The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will
continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we
encourage authorities in Lebanon to address socio-economic and demographic
factors that contribute to adolescent fertility as well as enforcing laws that
protect the rights of women and girls.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 159-165
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