International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Predicting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Peru Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Peru from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Peru to scale up educational campaigns among communities, protect sexual and reproductive rights of women and girls and establish more adolescent friendly clinics. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 304-308

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702050

Full Paper
Download

References

  1. WHO (2020). Organización Mundial de la Salud. Desarrollo en la adolescencia. Disponible en .https://www.who.int/maternal_child_adolescent/topics/adolescence/dev/es/
  2. Jennifer. C Paredesand Henry Santa-Cruz-Espinoza (2021). Risk factors associated with pregnancy in adolescents.Enfermería Global. 2021(62)119-128.
  3. Birhanu B.E., Kebede D.L., Kahsay A.B., and Belachew A.B (20119). Predictors of teen‑ age pregnancy in Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis. BMC Public Health. 19(1):601.
  4. Islam M.M., Islam M.K., Hasan M.S., and Hossain M.B (2017). Adolescent motherhood in Bangladesh: trends and determinants. PLoS ONE. 12(11):e0188294.
  5. Wall‑Wieler E., Roos L.L., and Nickel N.C (2016). Teenage pregnancy: the impact of maternal adolescent childbearing and older sister’s teenage pregnancy on a younger sister. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 16(1):120.
  6. Garwood S.K., Gerassi L., Jonson‑Reid M., Plax K., and Drake B(2015). More than poverty: the effect of child abuse and neglect on teen pregnancy risk. J Adolesc Health. 57(2):164–8.
  7. Ochen A.M., Chi P.C., and Lawoko S (2019). Predictors of teenage pregnancy among girls aged 13–19 years in Uganda: a community based case‑control study. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 19(1):211.
  8. Kirbas A., Gulerman H.C., and Daglar K (2016). Pregnancy in adolescence: is it an obstetrical risk? J Pediatr Adolesc Gynecol. 29(4):367–71.
  9. Amjad S., MacDonald I., Chambers T., Osornio‑Vargas A., Chandra S., and Voaklander D (2019). Social determinants of health and adverse maternal and birth outcomes in adolescent pregnancies: a systematic review and meta‑analysis. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol. 33(1):88–99.
  10. Grønvik T., and Fossgard SI (2018). Complications associated with adolescent childbearing in Sub‑Saharan Africa: a systematic literature review and meta‑analysis. PLoS ONE. 13(9):e0204327.
  11. Neal S., Mahendra S., Bose K., Camacho A.V., Mathai M., Nove (2016). The causes of maternal mortality in adolescents in low and middle income countries: a systematic review of the literature. BMC Pregnancy Child‑ birth. 16(1):352.
  12. Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. Adolescentes que no estudian ni trabajan y su condición de vulnerabilidad [Internet]. 2018 Disponible en https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1 632/libro.pdf 5
  13. Althabe F., Moore J.L., Gibbons L., Berrueta M., Goudar S.S, Chomba E., and Derman R.J., Patel A, Saleem S, Pasha O (2015). Adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes in adolescent pregnancies: The Global Network's Maternal Newborn Health Registry study. Reprod Health. 12(Suppl 2):S8.
  14. Ganchimeg T., Ota E., Morisaki N., Laopaiboon M., Lumbiganon P., Zhang J., Yamdamsuren B., Temmerman M., Say L., Tuncalp O (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multicountry study. BJOG. 121(Suppl 1):40–8.
  15. Malabarey O.T., Balayla J., Klam S.L., Shrim A., and Abenhaim H.A(2012). Pregnancies in young adolescent mothers: a population-based study on 37 million births. J Pediatr Adolesc Gynecol. 25(2):98–102.
  16. Marta Favara., Pablo Lavado., and Alan Sánchez (2016) Understanding teenage fertility, cohabitation, and marriage: the case of Peru. pp 1-82.

Copyright @ 2026-2017 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Developed by Byzero Technologies