Projecting Adolescent Fertility for Qatar Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Qatar from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will remain low throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Qatar to continuously enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, and address local factors that significant contribute to teenage pregnancy.  

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 315-319

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702052

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