International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Utilizing Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Draft Effective Adolescent Health Policies to Address High Teenage Pregnancy Rates and Child Births in Niger

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Niger from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Niger to strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education, scale up awareness campaigns among communities and provide funding for youth empowerment projects. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 263-268

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702043

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