ARIMA Model Application in the Detection of Future Trends of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Italy
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Italy from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (2,2,2) model. The findings of this study indicate that neonatal
mortality will remain very low throughout the out of sample period. Therefore,
we encourage policy makers in Italy to formulate neonatal policies that will
address disparities in neonatal and infant mortality, and attend to other
factors that contribute to deaths among neonates.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 301-308
