Analyzing Expected Future Trends of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Mexico Using Forecast Values Produced By the ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Mexico from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (5,1,4) model. The findings of this piece of work showed that
neonatal mortality is anticipated to decline from approximately 8 in 2020 to
around 5 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Hence, the Mexican
government should draft and implement locally designed policies that will help
tackle various causes of neonatal mortality in the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 364-368
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