Applying the ARIMA Model to Generate Expected Future Neonatal Mortality Trends in Burkina Faso
Abstract
Addressing adverse neonatal outcomes should be a
priority during this era of SDGs because the death of newborns has long lasting
psychological impacts on mothers and entire families. Neonatal mortality levels
indicate the quality of healthcare services during antenatal, delivery and
postnatal periods. Therefore governments should strive to sufficiently reduce
neonatal mortality by improving the quality of health care services at all
levels of healthcare. This research uses annual time series data on neonatal
mortality rate (NMR) for Burkina Faso from 1969 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (4,1,5) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal
mortality is likely going to decline from around 25 in 2020 to about 21 deaths
per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Hence, there is need to allocate more
resources to maternal and child health programs especially to ensure
availability of trained medical staff and medical supplies particularly in
primary health care facilities. Priority should also be given to regular
training of healthcare workers on basic & emergency obstetric and neonatal
healthcare.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 230-234
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