Making Use of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model to Forecast Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Brazil
Abstract
The Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology was proposed
by Box and Jenkins in 1970. This technique has gained tremendous popularity in
various fields such as economics, engineering and human medicine as result of
its accuracy and reliable forecasts. This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Brazil from 1963 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (0,2,5) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that NMR will
decline throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, policy-makers are
encouraged to draft and implement neonatal policies that will effectively
address factors which significantly contribute to mortality in neonates.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 225-229
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