Proposing Ways to Address Adverse Neonatal Health Outcomes in Madagascar Using Empirical Evidence from the ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Madagascar from 1969 to 2019 to predict
future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown
that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model
based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,2,5) model. The study found out that neonatal
mortality will gradually decline from approximately 20 in 2020 to around 16
deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030.Hence, the government of
Madagascar should craft neonatal healthcare policies which are country specific
to address the problem of mortality in neonates. Authorities should prioritize
availing adequate human resources through use of staff retention incentives,
ensuring enough medical supplies in primary healthcare facilities and
establishing good roads in rural areas to improve accessibility of healthcare
services.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 346-350
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